Archive for the ‘Buy and Sell’ Category

By David Kerr

Yesterday, I looked at three players, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, and Clay Buchholz, who have started the season by putting up quite gaudy numbers. Today, I want to look at two players who have done the opposite and whether you should buy, sell, or hold on to them. Let’s start in Los Angeles.

Josh Hamilton

Over 76 games dating back to last year’s All-Star break, Josh Hamilton is batting .247 with 16 home runs and 53 RBIs. Minus the average, those are solid power and run producing numbers. At one point early last season, Hamilton was the hottest hitter in baseball and it wasn’t even close. He hit a slump that saw his average drop over 100 points. This season he looks lost at the plate. On Wednesday night against Oakland, I watched him strikeout on three pitches with the bases loaded; strike three was a pitch way out of the zone that he reached for. He just seems uncomfortable. This is a player who is a career .299 hitter in April that also started 2012 batting .395 in that very month. Maybe it’s from jitters because he’s adjusting to a new team or maybe he’s lost a step. Whatever it is, I don’t think it will continue. Hamilton is a hitting machine and his price tag will never be lower this season than it is right now. I don’t think he’s going to put up the same type of power numbers that he put up while playing half of his games in Texas, but I do think hitting cleanup behind Mike Trout and Albert Pujols will soon pay dividends. If someone sours on Hamilton, find a way to acquire him. His track record is too good for him to all of a sudden be a notch above mediocre.

Recommendation: HOLD or BUY. Once he starts to hit (and he will,) the window will be closed.

Giancarlo Stanton

As one of my favorite players headed into this season, I think you probably already know what my recommendation will be. Let me tell you why. No one in the major leagues has a better chance to hit 45-50 home runs. I don’t care what the lineup around him looks like. I don’t care whether opposing teams will pitch around him (he already has a 8/11 walk-to-strikeout ratio.) When Stanton gets locked in, the ball will start flying. Just look at his ISO increase over the past three seasons. It has went from .248 (2010), to .275 (2011), to .318 (2012). I can’t stress enough the power that this guy possesses. Add that to the fact that he’s only 23, I can only imagine the numbers he’ll put up in the next 3-5 years. If you’re in a dynasty or keeper league, he’s one of the top five guys I’d look to acquire. Oh, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt to try to trade for him this year either in redraft leagues. If you already own him, don’t lose faith. The power numbers are coming… very soon.

Recommendation: HOLD or BUY!!

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By David Kerr

We are just over a week into the 2013 season and there has been plenty of craziness already. Yu Darvish almost threw a perfect game, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, and Michael Morse have been killing the ball, and Roy Halladay’s spring training struggles have carried over into the regular season. Over the next two days, I want to take a look at six guys and their performances to date, followed by a recommendation for the rest of the season. First the guys that have started hot.

Justin Upton

Justin Upton has been the hottest hitter from a power standpoint in the National League since the start of the season. He already has six home runs and if this type of production keeps up, he could easily finish April with ten or more. Upton is a guy that everyone has always been waiting on to break out. I believe that truly happens this year. He’s going to drive in the most runs of his career and will finish with his highest average to date. Who knows how many home runs he will hit, but 40 isn’t out of the realm of possibility.

Recommendation: HOLD or BUY. This will be Upton’s career year to date. You will want to be along for this ride. His value is high right now, but if he cools down for a short period, pounce and don’t look back.

Chris Davis

Chris Davis played out of his mind over the first four games of the season, hitting four homers and driving in 16 runs. That will easily be his best week of the season. Davis is a streaky hitter that strikes out a ton. He’s prone to slumps and will definitely go through his fair share this season. With that said, he should have no problem hitting 30 home runs again. He has one of the best power bats in the game. If I owned him and could turn him into an injured Freddie Freeman, I’d do it in a heartbeat.

Recommendation: SELL.

Clay Buchholz

Carrying over from his strong spring, Clay Buchholz has looked sharp in his first two starts of the season. He sports a 0.64 ERA to go along with 12 strikeouts in 14 innings pitched. Can he sustain? I’m skeptical. Since his breakout of 2010, he’s been often injured or under-performing. To date his batting average against is .184. That is 66 points lower than his career BAA number of .250. There is no way that will continue. Buchholz has also stranded every runner he’s allowed on base this year. His only run allowed was from a home run. Once these numbers even out, everything will be going up, except of course, the strikeouts. I’d look to move him.

Recommendation: SELL. If you could trade Buchholz for a starter such as Brandon Morrow, Ian Kennedy, or Doug Fister, I’d pull the trigger immediately. He may have his best season since 2010, but I’d rather invest in a starting pitcher that I know will put up good numbers.

I’ll be back tomorrow with three players that have started ice cold and my recommendations for them for the rest of the year.

If you have a long form Fantasy Baseball question, please e-mail it to me at Also, you can click the button below to follow me on Twitter where I will give you instant answers to all of your Fantasy Baseball question’s!


3 Pitchers YOU need to BUY

Posted: June 28, 2011 in Buy and Sell

By David Kerr

With the 2nd half of the season just weeks away here are 3 pitchers poised for big 2nd halves that deserve quite a bit of consideration.

Zack Greinke

If you’ve been patient with Greinke all season it’s about to pay off. With three 10-strikeout games and two 9-strikeout games in his past 7 starts he is ready to breakout in his first season as a Brewer. Before his start against the Yankees tonight, Greinke has a K/9 of 11.98 (80 K’s in 60.1 IP) which can only mean GREAT things for a guy sporting an ERA of 4.77. Another great stat to look at with Greinke is his K/BB which is 8.88/1. The guy is not walking anyone. This is a huge case of bad luck. If you can fool an owner into selling you Greinke because of the ERA, graciously accept! Your opportunity to buy is going to be over soon, so do it now.

Ubaldo Jimenez

Yeah, yeah, we all know Ubaldo started out 2010 15-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 1.05 WHIP before the All-Star break. This year it’s been exactly the opposite until lately and even then it hasn’t been all positive. Look, his stats aren’t great at this point in time, but I see reason for optimism. In 84 innings he has thrown 74 strikeouts. With 2-3 more games before the break he could end the first half with 90-95 K’s. He’s still has a BB/9 of 3.96, but remember, Ubaldo has always walked a lot of guys. You knew that before you owned him! That being said I see a guy that could have an ERA of 3.50 and a WHIP between 1.20-1.25 and 100 K’s the rest of the way.

Chris Carpenter

At age 36, the first half of the season has looked as though Chris Carpenter is starting to show his age. In all actuality I think he’s had some bad luck. With a K/9 of 7.27 he would be besting his career high of 6.86 by 0.41. Same goes for his BB/9. His 2011 stats show a BB/9 of 2.13. Career? 2.58. His BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) this season is .330. Career? .301  The Cardinals are going to be without Albert Pujols until at least the middle of August. Someone has to step up for the Cards and who better than the 14 year vet? If nothing else, Carpenter should certainly improve on his 2-7 record. I see a 3.50-3.75 ERA with 75-85 K’s the rest of the way. BUY.

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