2012-2013 Winter Meetings: Day 1

By David Kerr

The 2012-2013 MLB Winter Meetings kicked off today in Nashville, Tennessee. Personally, this is one of my favorite weeks of the calendar year in regards to baseball. Players are signing fat contracts, switching teams, and given incentive laden deals to prove themselves again. Over the next few days, I am going to break down all the moves that will have Fantasy Baseball implications. Feel free to leave a comment below.

Alex Rodriguez OUT 4-6 Months with a torn labrum.

Ouch. A-Rod is going to miss up to half of the 2013 campaign after having hip surgery in January. This is a tough blow for the Yankees, who could also be without Derek Jeter to start the season. Rodriguez is going to fall down draft boards, but if you have a DL spot, he will have value in 2013. Obviously his best days are behind him, but he will likely be productive if and when he gets back on the field. He’s a late round pick at this point, but don’t forget about him.

Mike Napoli signs with the Boston Red Sox for 3 years, $39 million.

I like this signing from Napoli’s perspective a lot. He has a career .307/.397/.710 split at Fenway Park and should have a decent bounce back year. The fact that he is catcher-eligible makes him all the more appealing. Throughout his career, his batting average has been all over the place. His lack of consistency in that department makes some owners cautious. Call me crazy, but I see his average rising in 2013 into the .260 range. If that is the case, it will definitely up his value, because the power will surely be there. Heck, I’ll even go as far to say that if he plays in 125+ games, he’ll reach a career high in homers.

The Texas Rangers are close to signing Joakim Soria to a 2 year, $8 million dollar contract.

Joakim Soria will not be available to start the 2013 season as he will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery. He can be avoid in all but the deepest AL-Only leagues. He likely won’t contribute much until mid-season at the earliest and is someone you should look at more in 2014. Joe Nathan has the closer’s job locked down in Texas (at least in 2013).

Grady Sizemore will miss at least half of 2013 after microfracture surgery on his right knee.

This will be the least surprising news of the ENTIRE offseason. Grady Sizemore can be avoided in the deepest of ALL fantasy leagues.

Geovany Soto re-signed with the Texas Rangers on a one-year deal.

I think that Texas is as good a place as any for Soto. He does have some pop in his bat, but he’ll never hit for average. He’s an AL-Only play with very little value in mixed leagues. He can be avoided in that format unless you’re in a deep two catcher league.

James Loney signed a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Rays.

James Loney has very little pop, but could hit 10-15 home runs with a solid average. He could be a late flier in mixed leagues, but will be useful in AL-Only leagues. It’s a nice signing for the Rays.

That is it for actual moves made today. There have been plenty of rumors swirling all day about a plethora of players, but nothing has come to fruition as of yet. I’ll be back tomorrow with another installment that hopefully includes a lot more players signing deals or swapping teams. If you are so inclined, leave a comment below. Also, click the button below to follow me on Twitter!

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Who’d You Rather?

By David Kerr

This week for “Who’d You Rather” (shoutout to the “Dear Mr. Fantasy” podcast) @44jaydog on Twitter wanted me to compare Brennan Boesch and Lorenzo Cain. This is actually a pretty good comparison because of how they’ve both performed since the All-Star break.

Brennan Boesch OR Lorenzo Cain

If you visted fantasy websites or picked up a magazine in late winter or early spring, you probably saw Brennan Boesch and Lorenzo Cain high on a lot of people’s sleeper list. Both have taken different steps at not producing this year, but finally in August both have come around and seem to be relatively productive.

Brennan Boesch

Last season Boesch hit 14 home runs and maintained a .283 average. With Detroit’s acquisition of Prince Fielder, many thought he would fill in nicely in the 2 hole and hit 20 home runs with plenty of runs scored. Up to the All-Star break, Boesch was hitting. 243 with only 8 homers. What’s worse is that he wasn’t really getting on base either, walking only 12 times. You aren’t going to score many runs if you can’t make it to first base. Boesch has picked his game up a little bit batting .292 since the break. He isn’t hitting ahead of two premier players anymore though, as he seems to be back and forth between the 5 and 7 holes in the lineup. Though he won’t score as many runs, this should definitely increase his RBI total. If he can maintain a .280 average he could provide decent HR/RBI numbers in the final 2 months.

Lorenzo Cain

Lorenzo Cain was one of the hottest hitters in Spring Training this year. He batted .371 with 5 home runs and 5 steals and looked as though he was ready to really break out as a power/speed combo that could be had later in drafts. Those plans were derailed when he landed on the DL for 3 months with groin issues. Seemingly healthy, Cain has done very well since the break. His numbers are VERY similar to Boesch’s in the same time period, except that Cain has a slightly higher average and he’s chipped in 4 steals. Cain is now batting third in the Royals lineup, so if he catches fire he has the chance to put up serious numbers.

The Verdict: Lorenzo Cain. I prefer Cain over Boesch because with Boesch you know what you’re going to get and I just don’t see much upside. Also, if Boesch went ice cold, I think he’d be put in a platoon which would lessen his playing time. I don’t think that will happen, but it’s a possibility. If Cain is healthy, he’s going to play. The Royals aren’t that far away from contending and Cain could be an important part of the equation. He needs to get at bats at the Major League level. I could see him chip in another 4 or 5 home runs with 8 steals the rest of the way and if he hits .280, that’s pretty darn solid.

I will have another “Who’d You Rather” up this weekend when I compare Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen!

Thanks for reading! Comments are always welcomed and encouraged. If you happened to stumble upon my blog, you can follow me on Twitter and ask me your Fantasy Baseball question’s daily. Just click the Twitter icon below.

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Who’d You Rather?

By David Kerr

To steal a “segment” from my buddies at the “Dear Mr. Fantasy” podcast (http://www.dmfantasybaseballpodcast.com), I’m going to play a game of “Who’d You Rather” today. I asked my followers on Twitter to submit two names for me to compare and contrast and then pick who’d I’d rather have the rest of the season. To start off, I am going to look at two Milwaukee outfielders sent in by @Savannahseniors.

Corey Hart OR Carlos Gomez

Corey Hart

Corey Hart is the type of player that flies under the radar, but at the end of the year the stats always seems to be there. Since becoming a regular in 2007, he’s had 20 home runs in all but one season (2009). He isn’t the base thief that he once was, but he’ll chip in a few here and there. He’s currently sitting at a line of .270-20-54-4 so there is a realistic possibility of 30 homers. He’s swinging a hot bat right now, hitting .329 since the All-Star break. With that being said though, beware. His bat can be quite streaky as evident by the .233 average he had in the month prior to the break. At the end of the season his average should be right around .275 with 30 home runs.

Carlos Gomez

Carlos Gomez has been a regular in only one season since he made his debut in 2007. In 2008 he logged 614 plate appearances while swiping 33 bags. His average? .258. His On-Base Percentage? .296. Yuck. From 2009 on he hasn’t eclipsed more than 349 plate appearances in a season making him nothing more than a bench player and an injury replacement. If you can look past his career stats, you’ll see a guy that from July 1-August 1 who has hit .274 with 5 homers and 11 steals. If you dig even further, you’ll see a guy that’s done most of his damage since the All-Star break (.320-4-9). Consider him lucky to this point, but I think his luck is about to run out.

The Verdict: Corey Hart and it’s really not close. Hart is very consistent from year to year and Gomez is more or less a flash in the pan. I’ll take Hart 100 times out of 100.

The next “Who’d You Rather” is sent in by both @1689J and @BigFourInsider.

Paul Konerko or Edwin Encarnacion

Paul Konerko

If you want to talk about a guy who is constant fantasy stud year in and year out, look no further than Paul Konerko. Over the past three seasons, he’s batting a studly .311 while bashing 87 home runs. This season alone he’s batting .327 with 17 homers. He’s on pace to reach the under on 30 home runs and 100 RBI’s, but that’s nothing an extreme hot stretch couldn’t change. I think there’s at least one of those coming between now and the end of the season. There is no doubt in my mind that Konerko is the safer bet between these two, even with him missing a day here and there with minor ailments. The best part about “PK” is that you know what you’re going to get. A strong batting average, plenty of home runs, and a lot of RBIs. CONSISTENCY is the only word to describe him. My end of season line prediction for Konerko is .315-28-92.

Edwin Encarnacion

Labeled “E5” because of his poor defensive skills at the hot corner, Edwin Encarnacion has really come into his own this season. As of today (August 1st) he’s batting .293, with a .388 on base percentage, 28 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 9 steals. At this point in the season that is top 10 production. The real question is can he keep it up? I tend to think he can as long as he can avoid the injury bug that has plagued the Blue Jays throughout the 2012 campaign. He has always been a guy that everyone was waiting for to break through the glass ceiling and reach his full potential. At age 29, it seems as though he’s done just that. There is nothing in his underlying stats that tell me he’s going to go into a prolonged slump. His BABIP is .287, he’s walking at a higher clip (12%) than ever before, and maybe most importantly he’s just totally locked in. Recently on Twitter I posed a question asking what my “tweeps” thought Encarnacion’s final line would be. Most said he’d hit 40 homers and drive in 100 runs. I agree with that. My guess on his final line is .280-43-105-12. That is utterly fantastic for a guy drafted later in drafts. Has he arrived for good? Only time will tell. But, he’s most definitely arrived for the 2012 season.

The Verdict: Edwin Encarnacion. This may be his career year, but this is FANTASY baseball and I know I’m playing to WIN NOW. Encarnacion will have a lower average than Konerko, but with the added homers and steals, it makes up for it. With that in mind, this isn’t a slight to Konerko. They’re extremely close overall, but this year I prefer “E5”.

Thanks for reading! Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment. I’d love to hear your thoughts. Again, shout-out to @cmcbrien and @TheFantasyDR from the Dear Mr. Fantasy Podcast for biting the “Who’d You Rather” tag. Click below to follow me on Twitter where I’ll answer all of your Fantasy Baseball question’s daily!

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Fantasy Implications from Today’s Deadline Deals

By David Kerr

Today marked the non-waiver trade deadline in Major League Baseball. It was quite an active day that saw two Philadelphia outfielders switching coasts, the Texas Rangers snag Ryan Dempster with five minutes left before the clock ran out, and a flurry of other moves. I’ll go through each of the moves with a quick blurb on each that touch on fantasy implications of the said players.

Shane Victorino traded to Los Angeles Dodgers for RHP Josh Lindblom and RHP Ethan Martin

Shane Victorino needed a change of scenery and going to the Dodgers is going to give him a much needed spark. He will be reunited with Coach Davey Lopes which should make him feel somewhat at home on his new team. He will be batting lead off which in turn should provide more at-bats and plenty of runs scored and stolen bases. He’ll even chip in a few homers. Since the All-Star break, Victorino’s batted .357 with 14 runs scored and 5 steals. I’m quite confident in Victorino for the rest of the season that I’d actually recommend buying him if you can.

Rest of Season Projection: .280-5-24-18

Hunter Pence traded to the San Francisco Giants for C Tommy Joseph, OF Nate Schierholtz, and RHP Seth Rosin

Hunter Pence is batting a solid, yet unspectacular .271-17-59-4 on the season. His fantasy value should remain the same even though he’s moving from an extreme hitter’s park to an extreme pitcher’s park. On his career he’s batting .329 with 5 home runs in AT&T Park. I could see a slight uptick in average with everything else about the same. His bat is much need in San Francisco’s lineup, but temper your expectations because lets face it, it’s still the Giants lineup!

Rest of Season Projection: .290-10-38-4

Jonathan Broxton traded to the Cincinnati Reds for LHP Donnie Joseph and RHP J.C. Sulbaran

Jonathan Broxton will be moving from the closer role in Kansas City to a setup role in Cincinnati. He’ll provide another strong arm for an already strong bullpen. He should rack up the holds and maybe chip in a few saves if Aroldis Chapman needs a day off.

Rest of Season Projection: 3-1-2.75-9 HOLDS-3 SVS

Gaby Sanchez traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates for OF Gorkys Hernandez and a draft pick

The Pirates made a low risk move bringing in Gaby Sanchez and it could pay dividends if he gets back on the right track. His line in the majors this season is .202-3-17-1. Brutual. His career numbers prior to this season were .269-40-167-8. Not so bad. I think there is definite room for improvement, but from a fantasy perspective he’s only relative in NL-Only leagues and very deep mixed leagues at this point due to the fact that he’ll be in a platoon with Garrett Jones. Keep an eye on him though and if he gets hot, he could be an option at first base down the stretch.

Rest of Season Projection: .250-5-18-1

Ryan Dempster traded to the Texas Rangers for 3B Christian Villanueva and RHP Kyle Hendricks

Ryan Dempster has posted the best ERA and WHIP numbers of his career in 2012. Sadly, I think that is going to change rather soon. There are a few factors that play into my assumption with the main two being his low BABIP of .242 and a strand rate of 84%. The rest of the way I could see his BABIP number rising which in turn would give him overall number similar to his 2008 numbers of .280 and 76.7% respectively. I’m not overly excited about Dempster moving to the AL and pitching his home games in Arlington. He should get plenty of wins and some strikeouts, but I have a strong feeling his ERA and WHIP will take a hit. He’s due for regression and I think the move to Texas will put that regression on the fast track.

Rest of the Season Projection: 6-3-3.75-1.30-60

Casey McGehee traded to the New York Yankees for RHP Chad Qualls

Casey McGehee had been very bland over 265 at-bats for the Pirates. That probably won’t change in New York, but you never know. He’s nothing more than a stopgap for the Yankees until A-Rod comes back, but it’s possible he could provide some pop. Add him in AL-Only leagues, but he still holds little value in mixed leagues. The other side of the deal was Chad Qualls. He holds no value.

Rest of the Season Projection: .230-5-15-1

Those were the most “high-profile” deals today, but there were a few other trades that have very minor fantasy implications including Craig Breslow to the Red Sox, Edward Mujica to the Cardinals, and Lars Anderson to the Indians in a minor league deal.

Obviously there were other trades prior to today. Some I like for fantasy purposes include: Travis Snider to the Pirates, Paul Maholm to the Braves, Geovany Soto to the Rangers, Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers, Anibal Sanchez to the Tigers, and Zack Greinke to the Angels.

I still wouldn’t touch Francisco Liriano with a 10 foot pole, no matter where he pitches!

Agree? Disagree? Leave a comment below. I’d love to hear your opinion/feedback.

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Let’s Review…

By David Kerr

So, it’s been awhile. Life gets busy, kids are crazy, work piles up, and I didn’t finish the season strong when it came to writing blogs. With that being said, I’d like to thank all of you that followed me on Twitter (@askrotobaseball) and asked question’s (some of you on a daily basis.) I got quite a few “thank-you” tweets, so hopefully I played a small part in helping you win (or finish in the money.)

I wanted to review a post that I made on July 14, 2011, at the All-Star break and see how my “fearless” second half predictions panned out. Let’s go…!

Prediction: Adam Dunn finishes the season with a .205 batting average and 22 home runs.

Result: YIKES! Adam Dunn was TERRIBLE…repeat, TERRIBLE!!!! With a finishing line of .159/11/42, I guess I really overestimated Adam Dunn to turn it on in the second half. My early guess for next year? .230/31/85…that is subject to change!

Prediction: After struggling for the first two and a half months, Chris Carpenter finishes the season with a 3.50 ERA and 150 strikeouts.

Result: I was very close on ERA but underestimated his strikeout total. From July 16 until the end of the season he tallied 7 wins, 95 strikeouts, and a 2.98 ERA. He had a very good second half (as I predicted) and also got a World Series ring. He should be fairly solid next year, but keep in mind he is getting up there in age. Don’t overpay in 2012!

Prediction: Matt Kemp joins the 40/40 club, being the first player to do so since 2006.

Result: SO CLOSE! Kemp finished with 39 HR/40 SB. It doesn’t get closer than that. My prediction was wrong, but oh well, Kemp had one heck of a year and finishing one Home Run shy “ain’t too shabby.” He’s a top 3 fantasy player going into 2012. Draft accordingly!

Prediction: A light bulb goes on and Alex Rios goes on a tear to start the second half. At the end of the season he’ll sit at 15 homers and 18 steals.

Result: Yeah, I guess I was wrong, but not THAT far off. Alex Rios finished with 13 HR and 11 SB, but that isn’t exactly close to my final line. He did have a very good month of September batting .307 with 5 homers, but boy was he a bust this year. I thought he would right the ship in the second half, but the only time he had any value this season was in the final weeks. Look for a decent bounce back next year. I wouldn’t be surprised with a 20/20 season from Rios.

Prediction: Clayton Kershaw will lead the majors in strikeouts with 260 by season’s end.

Result: Well, I was close again, but still didn’t hit it spot on. Kershaw finished with 248 strikeouts, just two behind my choice for AL MVP, Justin Verlander. Here is my off season recommendation… get Clayton Kershaw next year. This dude is a stud! He’s young, he’s a lefty, and he’s downright filthy. If there were one pitcher I’d want to draft, it’s Kershaw. BUY! BUY! BUY!

Prediction: Melky Cabrera will start putting up numbers like, well, Melky Cabrera. If you can, unload now. His best production is behind him.

Result: Man, do I hate being wrong! When I originally wrote my prediction column on July 14th, Cabrera had a .293 average, 11 homers, and 12 steals. In the second half, he batted .322, hit 7 home runs, and stole 8 bases. That is darn good fantasy production, especially from a guy you could have scooped off the waiver wire early in the season. Will he repeat his performance next year? I don’t think so, but keep an eye out for him. If you can get him cheap, give him a shot. You gotta love that HR/SB potential.

Prediction: In an unsurprising move, Francisco Liriano will be removed from the Twins rotation and subsequently dropped in most fantasy leagues.

Result: Well, I was half right. Francisco Liriano put up numbers that should have had him removed from the Twins’ rotation, but he wasn’t. He was most definitely dropped in most fantasy leagues. From July 14th on he posted a 5.23 ERA, which is a tell that I do NOT want to own him in 2012. Let someone else take a gamble… STAY AWAY!

Prediction: In an even less unsurprising turn of events, Josh Johnson will not throw another pitch in a major league game this season.

Result: If I remember correctly, this was the predictions I was most confident in. And… I NAILED IT! I love JJ, but his injury discourage me. Don’t OVERPAY!

Prediction: Heath Bell will get traded to a team where he will be the full-time closer, relieving fantasy owners everywhere.

Result: What I meant to say was that Heath Bell would be a closer for the remainder of 2011, but he’d still be pitching for the Padres! Good for Heath on his signing with the Marlins… they’re going to be good in 2012.

Prediction: The National League Cy Young winner will be Roy Halladay.

Result: I have to say, I’m ashamed to say I was wrong. On the record, I am a HUGE, HUGE, HUGE Clayton Kershaw fan. If he didn’t play for the Dodgers (who actually finished 82-79), I probably would’ve pegged him for NL Cy Young, but I went with Halladay only because he played for Philadelphia. Clayton, never again will I doubt you! Kershaw had a heckuva season and I wish I made the correct pick here. Still burns me up….

Prediction: The National League MVP will be Ryan Braun.

Result: BAM! Right on the money! And in other news…Ryan Braun will start the 2012 season with a 50 game suspension.

Prediction: Jordan Zimmerman will in fact be shut down. But, at the end of his season, he will have a strong ERA of 2.70 and WHIP of 1.10.

Result: Jordan Zimmerman was in fact, shut down, so I am half right! He finished with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The WHIP was close, but the ERA was off by 0.48. Still, all things considered, that was a great bounce back from Tommy John surgery. I’m on the record saying, BUY, BUY, BUY in 2012!!!

Prediction</strong: Desmond Jennings will be recalled around August 22, and finish with 3 homers and 7 steals on the year. For what team, I’m not too sure.

:Results: I’m glad I was wrong on this prediction. Desmond Jennings was recalled from AAA on July 23 and started off HOT! In September, Jennings hit .160, which isn’t good whatsoever. On the positive side, from his call up until the end of the season, Jennings had 10 homers and 20 steals. Ahem! Buy in 2012!!!

Prediction: Joe Nathan will be the Twin’s closer by August 1. He’ll finish the year with 12 saves.

Results: I was pretty much right on the money with this one. Joe Nathan was basically the closer by July 16 and ended the season with 14 saves. I’ll say he surpassed my expectations!

Prediction: Out of all the recent call-ups Mike Moustakas will be the most productive.

Result: This was wrong, but Moustakas had a very good September. He hit .352 with 4 homers and definitely helped fantasy teams down the stretch (including mine.) This kid has a bright future.

Prediction: A lot of people are predicting a big regression from Michael Morse. I disagree. His final line will be .295-30-85. Right on par with what he’s doing now.

Result: Result? .305-31-95. I am a Mike Morse believer! In fact, I was in the minority last year, but I’ve been a Morse believer since May of 2011 and will continue to be so. He is the real deal.

Prediction: Danny Espinosa statistics will stay right in line with what they are now. A low average with 25 homers and 22 steals by season’s end.

Result: Espinosa trailed off after the All-Star break hitting just .225 with 5 homers and 5 steals. I’d be confident in 2012 though, he’s going to help the counting stats, but don’t count on him helping in average.

Prediction: The American League Cy Young award winner will be Justin Verlander.

Result: DEAD ON!

Prediction: The American League MVP will be Adrian Gonzalez.

Result: What happened to the Red Sox? Whew! Just for the record, I agreed with Verlander grabbing the MVP award.

Prediction: Hanley Ramirez will have a very strong second half and play like he’s actually Hanley Ramirez circa 2009.

Result: I hate being THIS wrong! Hanley’s season was over on August 2nd. Look for a big bounce back in 2012 with SS/3B eligibility. Do NOT let him slip past the 15th overall pick in your draft!

Prediction: Phil Hughes will actually help fantasy teams down the stretch.

Result: If you want my real opinion on Phil Hughes, e-mail me at askrotobaseball@yahoo.com…

Prediction: Ryan Howard will lead the NL in second half homers with 21.

Result: This prize went to Dan Uggla and… Jacoby Ellsbury!? Yes, you read that right. Both players finished with 21 homers in the second half and I would recommend both in 2012!

Prediction: Jimmy Rollins will land on the disabled list at some point in the second half.

Result: August 22, 2011, Jimmy Rollins was placed on the DL. Still had a good season though… 16 HR/30 SB.

Prediction: Jay Bruce will be a top five fantasy outfielder the rest of the way.

Result: I’m a Bruce believer, but he really had a bad 2nd half in 2011, which went against his usual grain. He hit .241 in the 2nd half, BUT…have no fear, he’s going to break out FOR REAL in 2012. Keep in mind, he did club 32 dingers in 2011.

Prediction: Brennan Boesch will bat .240 the rest of the season, bringing his numbers down. Just like last year.

Result: I gave Boesch too much credit. His season ended on August 31 and from July 15 until that point he hit .219 with 4 homers. My advice? Draft him late next year, enjoy his production up to the All-Star break and trade him!! Mark my words…

Prediction: And finally…your 2011 Fantasy Baseball MVP will be Jose Bautista!

Result: I’d probably give this award to Matt Kemp, but if you’re in an OBP league, Jose Bautista can make a strong case. In “standard” fantasy leagues, Matt Kemp would get my vote, but Bautista did have another great, spectacular season and he should be a top 5 pick in EVERY fantasy draft in 2012. (Kemp a top 2 pick.)

Well, that’s a wrap on 2011. 2012, HERE. WE. COME!

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August NL Central Closer Report

By David Kerr

NL Central Closer Report

Milwaukee Brewers

Since acquiring Francisco Rodriguez, John Axford has saved 14 games and has an ERA of 1.00. There is no question of who the closer is in Milwaukee.

Current Closer: John Axford

St. Louis Cardinals

Fernando Salas has done very well as St. Louis’ closer this season and should continue that good production down the stretch. He’s only saved six games since the All-Star break, but has sported an ERA of 2.45 in that time. There is no ninth inning issue in St. Louis.

Current Closer: Fernando Salas

Cincinnati Reds

After struggling in July before the All-Star break, Francisco Cordero has saved 9 games and has a 0.64 ERA since. He is playing for a contract, so expect good production for the next month and a half.

Current Closer: Francisco Cordero

Pittsburgh Pirates

Though he has only saved five games since the All-Star break, Joel Hanrahan has been rock solid. The Pirates haven’t been winning many games as of late, which is why Hanrahan hasn’t been saving many games. He should still have no problem getting 7-10 more the rest of the way. He’s a great guy to own.

Current Closer: Joel Hanrahan

Chicago Cubs

Carlos Marmol is a guy I want to own only if my back’s against the wall and he’s one of my last options. He could blow up at any time. He was pitching well before his latest blown save last Tuesday, but I wouldn’t be confident in recommending him. He could blow three saves this week! He’s been pretty good when he’s not having a meltdown, but as you know, those are unpredictable. He’s not the worst option out there, but it’s nice to have stability in the ninth inning. Especially when you’re gunning for a title!

Current Closer: Carlos Marmol

Houston Astros

The lowly Astros won’t win many games, but if there is a closing situation, Mark Melancon will get the ball. He isn’t a great option, but I’d rather own him than someone like Kevin Gregg or the Jason Isringhausen/Bobby Parnell combo.

Current Closer: Mark Melancon

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August NL East Closer Report

By David Kerr

NL East Closer Report

Between today and tomorrow, I will be posting Closer Reports for all 30 teams. Headed down the stretch you may need a closer to pick up a few saves. I hope I will be able to help you out and get you one step closer to victory!

NL East

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have two realistic options to close, Ryan Madson and Antonio Bastardo. Even after an epic meltdown against the Nationals on Friday night, Madson is still the closer in Philly. He has had a few hiccups in the past week, but I’m confident that they were just blips on the radar and he will have a strong September. If he does continue to struggle though, keep your eyes on Bastardo. He is next in line for Philadelphia.

Current Closer: Ryan Madson

Atlanta Braves

With 39 saves and 101 strikeouts, Craig Kimbrel is the best closer in baseball. There are zero question’s in Atlanta.

Current Closer: Craig Kimbrel

Washington Nationals

Drew Storen has been rock solid all season and should continue that the rest of the way. He’s the Nationals closer for the foreseeable future.

Current Closer: Drew Storen

New York Mets

Jason Isringhausen finally reached 300 saves, but he may not save many more games this season. Isringhausen isn’t very good at this point and Bobby Parnell should see most of the closing opportunities between now and the end of the season. If I had a choice between the two, I’d definitely want to own Parnell. That being said, this is a situation I’d want to stay away from unless absolutely necessary. These type of situation’s are frustrating for fantasy owners and should be used as a last resort.

Current Closer(s): Bobby Parnell, Jason Isringhausen

Florida Marlins

Even while sporting an ERA over 4.00, Leo Nunez has saved 33 games for Florida. There were rumblings of him being traded at the deadline last month, but nothing came to fruition. He should save another 10 games for the Fish this year.

Current Closer: Leo Nunez

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Studs for (Duds)?

By David Kerr

Studs For (Duds)?

I was asked a question today about trading a stud pitcher for three “pieces” in a keeper league. It peaked my interest, so I wanted to share it with you.

At this point in the season, you know whether you have a chance to win or whether you’re playing for next year and into the future. If you’ve had a bad year there is a good chance another owner is calling trying to pry away a missing piece or two to put him over the top. Now, every league has the prototypical “low-ballers”. They offer you their bench players in exchange for Joey Votto and when you call them on it they respond by saying, “Well, if you look at it from this angle, I was giving you a lot of depth.” Right. It’s easy to spot a low-baller and once you call them out on it, they probably won’t do it again. With that being said, you can still make a deal with someone who tried to cut your legs out from under you. Remember, HE is the one who NEEDS a player RIGHT NOW! The ball is in your court.

The question I received was, “Should I trade Justin Verlander for Ichiro, Shaun Marcum, and Eduardo Nunez.” The answer is absolutely not. If I were offered this, I wouldn’t take it as an insult, but I would feel as if this were a low-ball offer. Justin Verlander is a top three pitcher this year and is only 28 years old! He should be pitching strong for at least seven, possibly ten more years. He is a guy I want to anchor my rotation for years to come. The other side of that trade has three players whom all serve a purpose, but not one of them comes close to the word, “stud”. Ichiro Suzuki’s age has finally caught up to him. He’s only hitting .269 and I don’t really see any signs that he’s going to rebound this year or in the future. Shaun Marcum is a solid pitcher. I like him a lot. What he isn’t though is a staff ace. He’s a good number three, but there is no comparison to someone like Verlander. Eduardo Nunez is a decent fill in guy. But, the only reason he is starting is because Alex Rodriguez is injured. In a few weeks he will go back to the bench and continue in the utility role that he served in for the first half of the season. At this point in time he is a deep mixed league play. When A-Rod comes back, he will be a deep AL-only play. He has very little value.

So to wrap things up, on paper it would be Verlander for Ichiro and Marcum. For a keeper league, that would be highway robbery for the owner getting Verlander. Hypothetically, for me to do a deal like this, I would want someone like Jay Bruce and Madison Bumgarner or Michael Pineda in return. Remember, the owner NEEDS the piece that YOU have. Don’t ever sell yourself short. Make the owner overpay or at the very least make the deal even, right down the middle. Dealing a stud can pay dividends in the future, but you have to be sure your return is correct. If you don’t get enough back, you can put yourself in an even deeper hole for the future.

Have a great weekend!

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Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis

By David Kerr

Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis

This is an analysis of every trade made over the past month. As you know, fantasy baseball can be about minor pieces, so I included the minor trades. Here we go, starting with a trade made on July 12.

Francisco Rodriguez (Mets) traded to the Brewers for two PTBNL.

Even though this was a few weeks back, it is still significant for those you in Holds leagues. K-Rod lost his closer’s job and is now setting up John Axford in Milwaukee. He does hold a little value at the current time, but should only be on roster’s in NL-only leagues and DEEP (15 team or deeper) mixed leagues. If your league counts holds, roster him. Obviously if Axford gets hurt, add him immediately. Otherwise, wait until next year when he will probably land a closer’s job.

Jeff Keppinger (Astros) traded to the Giants for pitchers Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel.

Jeff Keppinger is a decent stop-gap utility guy with good average and that’s about it. His role in San Francisco will be the same as it was in Houston and his production won’t change much. He should only on your roster if you lose a starter to injury and you really need average help. He has no pop and doesn’t steal any base’s which means he pretty worthless from a fantasy standpoint.

Wilson Betemit (Royals) traded to the Tigers for pitcher Antonio Cruz and catch Julio Rodriguez.

Much like Jeff Keppinger, Wilson Betemit offers little from a fantasy standpoint. He should be owned in deep mixed leagues and AL-only leagues. He may hit a few more home runs the rest of the season, but even at a weak third base there are a lot better options. Stay away unless you have no other choice.

Jonny Gomes (Reds) traded to the Nationals for pitcher Chris Manno and outfielder Bill Rhinehart.

Jonny Gomes is hitting a very weak .212 on the season, but who knows, maybe a change of scenery will change that. He does have 11 homers to go along with that paltry average, but still I think he is only worth being on your roster in 15 team mixed league or deeper. Naturally, he should be owned in an NL only league. If he gets hot, he is definitely worth picking up. His home runs usually come in bunches. He isn’t someone you can plan on help your team though. He’s an injury replacement only.

Edwin Jackson (White Sox) and Mark Teahan traded to the Blue Jays for Jason Frasor and Zack Stewart.

This was the first part of the three team blockbuster between the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Cardinals. I’ll touch on Jackson in the next trade breakdown. As for Teahan, he will be a part-time player. He is only hitting .202 as it is. He really shouldn’t be on any roster right now. Jason Frasor is worth owning in Holds leagues, but really has no chance of closing.

Edwin Jackson (Blue Jays), Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson traded to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet, Trevor Miller, and P.J. Walters.

I think Edwin Jackson moving from the AL to the NL can only help. Along with a league switch, he will now be guided by pitching coach Dave Duncan. I think he needs to be owned in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. He has always had good strikeout numbers and his ERA should lower with the move to St. Louis. Dotel and Rzepczynski will continue to be setup men and Corey Patterson will probably be a fourth outfielder. I wouldn’t roster Patterson unless you’re in an NL-only or 15 team mixed league. He does have stolen base potential, so he does have some value.

Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays was much-needed for everyone involved. Always projected to be a superstar, there was too much drama in St. Louis for him to ever succeed. I would say Rasmus should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues and he’s borderline for a 10 team mixed league. He certainly has the potential to be very good, but his .241 average to go along with 10 homers and 5 steals isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. Keep a close watch. He could break out in the final two months.

Carlos Beltran (Mets) traded to the Giants for pitcher Zach Wheeler.

As long as he stays healthy, I think Carlos Beltran will provide a much-needed jolt to the Giants stagnant offense. He should have numbers similar to what he had with the Mets before the trade. It’s worth noting that he’s never hit a home run at AT&T Park, but he does possess a career lifetime average of .310 at the Giants home park. He will be fine and you should be confident he will continue to produce at a high level the rest of the season.

Kosuke Fukodome (Cubs) traded to the Indians for pitcher Carlton Smith and outfielder Abner Abreu.

I was expect Fukodome to play roughly four to five days a week, but he shouldn’t be owned on your fantasy team unless you’re in a deep mixed league or AL-only league. I suppose a case could be made for an OBP league, but even then, he really doesn’t produce much else. Stay away.

Hunter Pence (Astros) traded to the Phillies for pitcher Jarred Cosart, pitcher Josh Zied, first baseman Johnathan Singleton, and a PTBNL.

I really like this deal from a fantasy standpoint. Hunter Pence’s stock should rise moving from a terrible Houston lineup to a powerhouse like Philadelphia. He will be hitting behind Ryan Howard, but should still provide good RBI totals since Howard is a low average player. I think he will hit another 8-10 homers the rest of the way as well. He’s in a good situation and has a good head on his shoulders. He should really shine and should definitely help your team down the stretch. He is a guy I would try to trade for. Obviously, he needs to be owned in every fantasy league in the world.

Jerry Hairston Jr. (Nationals) traded to the Brewers for outfielder Erik Komatsu.

Hairston Jr. is a utility player and nothing more. He should be owned in deep NL only leagues only.

Jason Marquis (Nationals) traded to the Diamondbacks for infielder Zach Walters.

Jason Marquis isn’t as good as his current ERA of 3.95. That being said, he could be a spot starter in the right situation. He should be owned in NL-only league or deep mixed leagues. He’s really more of injury replacement if you get into a bind, but could help you out if the stars aligned correctly. Overall though, I’d stay away.

Doug Fister (Mariners) and David Pauley traded to the Tigers for outfielder Casper Wells, infielder Fernando Martinez, and pitcher Charlie Furbush.

Doug Fister isn’t a big strikeout guy (though it has improved a lot from last season), but he gets the job done in the ERA and WHIP departments. For that, he should be owned in 12 team mixed league and deeper. I think he has a chance to win 4-5 more games the rest of the way while maintaining a similar ERA and WHIP. Pauley is a bullpen guy with good numbers that is useful in Holds leagues. Wells isn’t really worth much fantasy wise unless you’re in a deep AL-only league. Furbush really has no reason to be on many fantasy teams. The only real winner from a fantasy standpoint is Fister.

Mike Aviles (Royals) traded to the Red Sox for infielder Yamaico Navarro and pitcher Kendal Volz.

Aviles will be a utility bench player for the Red Sox, but he does actually have a little bit of value because of his speed. He won’t play much, so unless there is an injury he only needs to be rostered in the deepest of leagues. Keep him in the back of your mind if you’re in a pinch and need steals. He could help out there.

Koji Uehara (Orioles) traded to the Rangers for pitcher Tommy Hunter and infielder Chris Davis.

Koji Uehara could probably close on a fair amount of major league teams. His numbers are excellent. He’ll continue as a setup man, but who knows, if Feliz starts to stink up the joint, the Rangers could turn to Uehara for the ninth inning. He should be owned in all Holds leagues. Keep an eye on Tommy Hunter, he has been pitching in relief for the Rangers, but ultimately should be a starter. Chris Davis has real power, but has been viewed as a AAAA player. Let’s see if a change of scenery can make his bat come alive.

Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) traded to the Indians for pitcher Alex White, pitcher Joseph Gardner, pitcher Drew Pomeranz, and first baseman Matt McBride.

Ubaldo Jimenez had a horrid April and May, but since the beginning of June has actually done pretty well. His ERA has lowered and his strikeout rate is up. I think the move to Cleveland will be a good thing for him and the Indians also. I’m not sure that he will return to his first-half form of last year, but he should definitely do well. He’s a must own in 12 team mixed leagues and probably even shallower leagues. He’s someone I would try to acquire via trade, if I could get him cheap.

Orlando Cabrera (Indians) traded to the Giants for outfielder Thomas Neal.

Cabrera is way past his prime and his bat shows it. He shouldn’t be owned in anything but deep NL-only leagues and very deep mixed leagues and even then, he probably shouldn’t be owned. He just isn’t very good anymore.

Derrek Lee (Orioles) traded to the Pirates for first baseman Aaron Baker.

Derrek Lee should be an upgrade for the Pirates and his track record for second halves says he could be an asset for your fantasy team. I think he’s a fringe player in a 12 team mixed league. He’s probably more suited for a 15 team mixed league, but does still have some pop left in his bat. He’s hit 6 homers since July 1. Keep an eye on Lee, you may need him as an injury replacement over the next two months.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) traded to the Cardinals for outfielder Alex Castellanos.

Oh, if only he could stay healthy…

Rafael Furcal could be a big asset with the bat, but he can’t stay off the disabled list. It’s actually quite frustrating, but such is life owning Raffy. If he’s healthy, he should be in your lineup, but always make sure you have a backup plan! My advice is to see if someone who is weak at shortstop would have an interest. It is a weak position, you know. If you’re not able to move him, enjoy his production… until he gets hurt again.

Michael Bourn (Astros) traded to the Braves for outfielder Jordan Schafer, pitcher Juan Abreu, pitcher Paul Clemens, and pitcher Brett Oberholtzer.

This is a great trade for the Braves and should be for your fantasy team as well. Bourn is a premier stolen base threat and should swipe a lot of bags and score a lot of runs atop the Atlanta lineup. The only thing that is a bit disheartening is that Atlanta as a team is terrible when it comes to stealing bases. That will change soon. He’s in a great situation and will continue his great production from here on out. If someone is selling, I’m buying.

Mike Adams (Padres) traded to the Rangers for pitchers Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland.

Everyone thought Heath Bell would be the Padre to move and that never happened. Adams will move to Texas and fill the role he had with San Diego, a setup man. He’s a must own in Holds leagues.

Brad Ziegler (A’s) traded to the Diamondbacks for infielder Brandon Allen and pitcher Jordan Norberto.

Brad Ziegler is a situational lefty and that’s basically it. He should only be used in deeper Holds leagues. Brandon Allen may get a chance to play first base for the A’s, but as of now he shouldn’t really be owned in too many leagues. He’s very deep mixed league or AL-only at this point.

Ryan Ludwick (Padres) traded to the Pirates for a PTBNL.

If anything, at least Ludwick is out of Petco Park. Sadly though, I don’t think he has a ton of power. I think his 38 home run effort in 2008 was a blip on the radar. That being said, he should definitely be owned in NL-only leagues and in 15 team mixed leagues. He’s borderline for a 12 team mixed league. If he starts hitting better, he could be a definite add. Watch his production and pounce if he gets hot.

Erik Bedard (Mariners) and pitcher Josh Fields traded to Boston for outfielder Trayvon Robinson (from Dodgers) and Chih-Hsien Chiang. Also, the Dodgers received catcher Tim Federowicz and pitchers Juan Rodriguez and Stephen Fife.

See Furcal, Rafael.

Look, If Bedard can stay healthy, he will be VERY good. Of course, we all know that isn’t a guarantee. Hypothetically if he stays healthy, he could win 6-8 games the rest of the way. Will he avoid the disabled list? I wouldn’t put money on it. Overall though, he’s a must own, but be cautious.

Well, that’s it for this year’s deadline. Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it!

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use Twitter!

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The Trade Deadline

By David Kerr

The Trade Deadline

It is no doubt the most anticipated day of baseball’s regular season. A lot of phone calls are made. A lot of fans are scouring blogs, web sites, and of course twitter for up to the minute information. Obviously, I’m talking about the trade deadline. July 31 at 4:00 PM EST marks the deadline and it is guaranteed a lot of players will be changing teams. So, what does that mean for your fantasy team? Well, it could mean absolutely nothing. Chances are though, it will mean something to at least one player on your team. Whether a player on your team is traded or a player your guy bats in front of, it could have an impact on the rest of your season.

As of right now (9:00 PM EST), Carlos Beltran is on his way to San Francisco. Will he improve production, decrease production, or stay the same? My guess is he stays about the same. He is a solid average and on base guy. He has decent pop, but isn’t stealing any bases. He goes from one pitcher’s park (Chase Field) to another (AT&T Park), but he’s never hit a home run at the latter. Obviously, that doesn’t mean he won’t hit any home runs there, but it is something to think about. If I were a Beltran owner, I’m not worried. Barring injuries, his production should continue at its current pace.

If I were a Heath Bell owner, I’d be somewhat worried, but for a different reason. Most people would agree, Bell is a top five fantasy closer. Wherever he pitches, he will pitch well. There are rumors flying around about Bell headed to Texas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, and practically every other team that has a shot at the playoffs. The reality is, he could end up anywhere. There is also a realistic possibility that he could close. I wouldn’t count on it, but it would not surprise me. If Bell is traded to someone like the Yankees, forget about it. Unless you’re in a holds league, you need to cut bait and find a new closer ASAP. This is a critical time of year to know exactly what’s going on in baseball at all times. You could be five minutes late on picking up a player and it could cost you big time.

Earlier today Edwin Jackson was sent to St. Louis via Toronto. In the same deal, Colby Rasmus found himself a new home with the Blue Jays. This is the type of deadline deal that I think will benefit both players. Edwin Jackson moving to the National League, along with his new pitching coach (Dave Duncan) should produce good results. You never know what you’re going to get with E-Jax, but I definitely think he’s in a better situation now. As for Rasmus, he needed a change of scenery in the worst way. He is moving to a very good hitter’s park, he’ll be hitting in a good lineup, and he’s away from Tony LaRussa. All three factors bode well for Rasmus. He should be fine.

Over the next few days there will be a lot of movers. Some will impact your team, other’s you may not give a second glance. If I can offer one piece of advice, it is to reiterate what I said before. PAY ATTENTION! If a closer moves, you may need to grab his replacement. If a spot opens up for a part-time player to become a full-time player, it’s something that could impact your team. Just be sure to know what’s going on.

Lastly, I want to let you know, that I will give my full trade deadline analysis on Sunday night. In the mean time, get ready, because it will be a busy couple of days!

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use twitter!

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