DSE/AskROTObaseball Mock Draft #1 Round 3/4 Summaries

Posted: January 22, 2013 in Articles, Mock Drafts

By David Kerr

DSE/AskROTObaseball Mock Draft #1 Round 3/4 Summaries

Round 3

@zomall Cole Hamels 3.1 33 SP
@PatsRule23 Adrian Gonzalez 3.2 34 1B
@Murrrrrph Bryce Harper 3.3 35 OF
@MagicSpecs Jason Heyward 3.4 36 OF
@VinnieRullo Dustin Pedroia 3.5 37 2B
@ClubhouseGM Jay Bruce 3.6 38 OF
@TheFantasyDR Craig Kimbrel 3.7 39 RP
@MRobison21 Ben Zobrist 3.8 40 2B
@fake0elvis Gio Gonzalez 3.9 41 SP
@Three_O_Swing Zack Greinke 3.10 42 SP
@cooperkyle22 Ian Kinsler 3.11 43 2B
@daydreaming08 Jacoby Ellsbury 3.12 44 OF
@askROTObaseball Billy Butler 3.13 45 1B
@faketeams Allen Craig 3.14 46 1B
@TKing978 Curtis Granderson 3.15 47 OF
@NYLivinCAMind Elvis Andrus 3.16 48 SS

Round Summary

When it comes to intriguing players in 2013, for me, no one is ahead of Bryce Harper. As a rookie, he had a triple slash of .270/.340/.477 along with 22 homers and 18 steals. I like for Harper to exceed his total in both categories this season. I don’t think that early in the third round (pick 35 overall) is a reach for Harper one bit. I would assume that the owner, @Murrrrrph, is high on Harper and knew he wouldn’t fall back to him at the end of the fourth round. With upside like Harper’s, I think that the third round is just right. I like the back to back picks of Jason Heyward and Dustin Pedroia. Both warrant third round picks; Heyward on his upside and Pedroia due to his track record and position. Craig Kimbrel was the first Relief Pitcher taken off the board and that is no surprise. Not many relievers are going to strikeout over 100 batters and give you 40 saves. Kimbrel can and will do that in 2013. Ben Zobrist was another solid pick in the third round, especially due to his multi-position eligibility. In a 16-team draft, position plays a large role in draft strategy. It was definitely a solid pick. Jacoby Ellsbury went late in the third round, which is about as far as he should last. More on him when I discuss my own pick. Elvis Andrus fits the same mold as Ben Zobrist only he doesn’t have multi-position eligibility. I am a little down on Andrus this season because I feel that if he doesn’t steal 35-40 bases, his value is diminished. He only stole 20 in 2012. Here’s hoping that he uses his wheels more often this season.

My Pick: Billy Butler

Before picking Billy Butler, I was hoping that Jacoby Ellsbury would fall to me. Like so many of us have encountered before though, I got sniped! My other options were Matt Holliday and Ryan Zimmerman. I settled on Butler because he has First Base eligibility this season, he always stays healthy, and you basically know what you’re going to get. Last season he turned a lot of doubles into home runs. I’m not sure if he’ll approach 30 home runs this season, but I’d bet he hits 25. Along with his always solid average and on-base percentage, I feel confident in Butler this year.

Best Value Pick: Ian Kinsler

Overall, I can’t say I’m that high on Ian Kinsler. With that said, at number 43 overall, he provides great value out of a weak position. He has 30/30 upside even with a rather dismal batting average. If Kinsler can manage to hit .270, his value definitely increases. I don’t want to overestimate Kinsler, but I think he’ll go 25/25 this season which is solid for any third round pick, not to mention a guy that plays second base.

Round 4

@NYLivinCAMind Matt Holiday 4.1 49 OF
@TKing978 Aramis Ramirez 4.2 50 3B
@faketeams Ryan Zimmerman 4.3 51 3B
@AskrROTOBaseball Cliff Lee 4.4 52 SP
@daydreaming08 Mark Trumbo 4.5 53 OF
@cooperkyle22 CC Sabathia 4.6 54 SP
@Three_O_Swing Chris Sale 4.7 55 SP
@fake0elvis B.J. Upton 4.8 56 OF
@MRobison21 Chase Headley 4.9 57 3B
@TheFantasyDR Yoenis Cespedes 4.10 58 OF
@ClubhouseGM Ian Desmond 4.11 59 SS
@VinnieRullo Mark Teixeira 4.12 60 1B
@magicspecs Madison Bumgarner 4.13 61 SP
@Murrrrrph Max Scherzer 4.14 62 SP
@PatsRule23 Joe Mauer 4.15 63 C
@zomall Aaron Hill 4.16 64 2B

Round Summary

It was no surprise that Matt Holliday kicked off the fourth round of this Mock Draft. I actually considered him the third round, but passed for Billy Butler. Along with Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman and Cliff Lee were both safe picks. I actually think Lee is somewhat undervalued and I was happy to see him there in the fourth. Some may look at B.J. Upton’s low average and be turned off, but this is a guy that hit 28 home runs and stole 31 bags last season. He’s never going to hit for a high average, but has a chance for 30/30 every single year. Chase Headley is a big question mark this year. Can he hit 30 home runs again? Will he steal 15-20 bases? I say no to the former and yes to the latter. I have a piece on http://www.MLBDirt.com that discusses Headley’s season last year. You can access that article here. He will be solid, but I don’t think it’s realistic to expect him to match or exceed his 2012 batting line. Ian Desmond is another player I mentioned in that same article. I think picking Desmond in the fourth round was a solid move because Shortstop is so weak. Position eligibility is even more important in a draft this deep. Joe Mauer was a solid pick with the next to last pick in the fourth round. Mauer doesn’t have much pop or speed, but he’s above average in every other category.

My Pick: Cliff Lee

I love Cliff Lee and I didn’t hesitate to grab him in the fourth round. Heck, I was surprised he was still there to be honest. The Phillies will be better in 2013 and that should bode well for Lee’s win total. He only one SIX games last season. He did stikeout 207 batters though all the while posting a solid ERA and WHIP. He should have a great season.

Best Value Pick: Madison Bumgarner

Madison Bumgarner is primed for a big season in 2013. He had his moments in 2012, but still managed an ERA of 3.37 and a 1.11 WHIP. He’ll win a lot of games for a very good San Francisco team and of course, rack up the strikeouts. This was @magicspecs first Starting Pitcher to go along with three solid bats. Very nice pick.

Guest Blurb

@MRobison21: In the first two rounds I went with a Starting Pitcher. I figured in a 16 team league, the pitching will thin fast and I wanted two workhorses (Verlander and Strasburg) at the top of my rotation. In rounds three and four, I started to fill in my offense. All studs are obviously gone at this point, so I focused on getting the best hitters at the weakest positions and the biggest drop offs to the next best guys at those positions. I picked Ben Zobrist in the third due to his versatility (2B/SS/OF eligible) and mix of pop and a little speed. Kinsler and Andrus were available, but I prefer Zobrist to either. I came back with Headley in the fourth for the same reason, the drop off to the rest of the pack is quite sharp (Prado/Sandoval/Freese). I like the look of my team so far.

The round five summary will be out once the round is completed.

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