Let’s Review…

Posted: December 16, 2011 in Articles

By David Kerr

So, it’s been awhile. Life gets busy, kids are crazy, work piles up, and I didn’t finish the season strong when it came to writing blogs. With that being said, I’d like to thank all of you that followed me on Twitter (@askrotobaseball) and asked question’s (some of you on a daily basis.) I got quite a few “thank-you” tweets, so hopefully I played a small part in helping you win (or finish in the money.)

I wanted to review a post that I made on July 14, 2011, at the All-Star break and see how my “fearless” second half predictions panned out. Let’s go…!

Prediction: Adam Dunn finishes the season with a .205 batting average and 22 home runs.

Result: YIKES! Adam Dunn was TERRIBLE…repeat, TERRIBLE!!!! With a finishing line of .159/11/42, I guess I really overestimated Adam Dunn to turn it on in the second half. My early guess for next year? .230/31/85…that is subject to change!

Prediction: After struggling for the first two and a half months, Chris Carpenter finishes the season with a 3.50 ERA and 150 strikeouts.

Result: I was very close on ERA but underestimated his strikeout total. From July 16 until the end of the season he tallied 7 wins, 95 strikeouts, and a 2.98 ERA. He had a very good second half (as I predicted) and also got a World Series ring. He should be fairly solid next year, but keep in mind he is getting up there in age. Don’t overpay in 2012!

Prediction: Matt Kemp joins the 40/40 club, being the first player to do so since 2006.

Result: SO CLOSE! Kemp finished with 39 HR/40 SB. It doesn’t get closer than that. My prediction was wrong, but oh well, Kemp had one heck of a year and finishing one Home Run shy “ain’t too shabby.” He’s a top 3 fantasy player going into 2012. Draft accordingly!

Prediction: A light bulb goes on and Alex Rios goes on a tear to start the second half. At the end of the season he’ll sit at 15 homers and 18 steals.

Result: Yeah, I guess I was wrong, but not THAT far off. Alex Rios finished with 13 HR and 11 SB, but that isn’t exactly close to my final line. He did have a very good month of September batting .307 with 5 homers, but boy was he a bust this year. I thought he would right the ship in the second half, but the only time he had any value this season was in the final weeks. Look for a decent bounce back next year. I wouldn’t be surprised with a 20/20 season from Rios.

Prediction: Clayton Kershaw will lead the majors in strikeouts with 260 by season’s end.

Result: Well, I was close again, but still didn’t hit it spot on. Kershaw finished with 248 strikeouts, just two behind my choice for AL MVP, Justin Verlander. Here is my off season recommendation… get Clayton Kershaw next year. This dude is a stud! He’s young, he’s a lefty, and he’s downright filthy. If there were one pitcher I’d want to draft, it’s Kershaw. BUY! BUY! BUY!

Prediction: Melky Cabrera will start putting up numbers like, well, Melky Cabrera. If you can, unload now. His best production is behind him.

Result: Man, do I hate being wrong! When I originally wrote my prediction column on July 14th, Cabrera had a .293 average, 11 homers, and 12 steals. In the second half, he batted .322, hit 7 home runs, and stole 8 bases. That is darn good fantasy production, especially from a guy you could have scooped off the waiver wire early in the season. Will he repeat his performance next year? I don’t think so, but keep an eye out for him. If you can get him cheap, give him a shot. You gotta love that HR/SB potential.

Prediction: In an unsurprising move, Francisco Liriano will be removed from the Twins rotation and subsequently dropped in most fantasy leagues.

Result: Well, I was half right. Francisco Liriano put up numbers that should have had him removed from the Twins’ rotation, but he wasn’t. He was most definitely dropped in most fantasy leagues. From July 14th on he posted a 5.23 ERA, which is a tell that I do NOT want to own him in 2012. Let someone else take a gamble… STAY AWAY!

Prediction: In an even less unsurprising turn of events, Josh Johnson will not throw another pitch in a major league game this season.

Result: If I remember correctly, this was the predictions I was most confident in. And… I NAILED IT! I love JJ, but his injury discourage me. Don’t OVERPAY!

Prediction: Heath Bell will get traded to a team where he will be the full-time closer, relieving fantasy owners everywhere.

Result: What I meant to say was that Heath Bell would be a closer for the remainder of 2011, but he’d still be pitching for the Padres! Good for Heath on his signing with the Marlins… they’re going to be good in 2012.

Prediction: The National League Cy Young winner will be Roy Halladay.

Result: I have to say, I’m ashamed to say I was wrong. On the record, I am a HUGE, HUGE, HUGE Clayton Kershaw fan. If he didn’t play for the Dodgers (who actually finished 82-79), I probably would’ve pegged him for NL Cy Young, but I went with Halladay only because he played for Philadelphia. Clayton, never again will I doubt you! Kershaw had a heckuva season and I wish I made the correct pick here. Still burns me up….

Prediction: The National League MVP will be Ryan Braun.

Result: BAM! Right on the money! And in other news…Ryan Braun will start the 2012 season with a 50 game suspension.

Prediction: Jordan Zimmerman will in fact be shut down. But, at the end of his season, he will have a strong ERA of 2.70 and WHIP of 1.10.

Result: Jordan Zimmerman was in fact, shut down, so I am half right! He finished with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. The WHIP was close, but the ERA was off by 0.48. Still, all things considered, that was a great bounce back from Tommy John surgery. I’m on the record saying, BUY, BUY, BUY in 2012!!!

Prediction</strong: Desmond Jennings will be recalled around August 22, and finish with 3 homers and 7 steals on the year. For what team, I’m not too sure.

:Results: I’m glad I was wrong on this prediction. Desmond Jennings was recalled from AAA on July 23 and started off HOT! In September, Jennings hit .160, which isn’t good whatsoever. On the positive side, from his call up until the end of the season, Jennings had 10 homers and 20 steals. Ahem! Buy in 2012!!!

Prediction: Joe Nathan will be the Twin’s closer by August 1. He’ll finish the year with 12 saves.

Results: I was pretty much right on the money with this one. Joe Nathan was basically the closer by July 16 and ended the season with 14 saves. I’ll say he surpassed my expectations!

Prediction: Out of all the recent call-ups Mike Moustakas will be the most productive.

Result: This was wrong, but Moustakas had a very good September. He hit .352 with 4 homers and definitely helped fantasy teams down the stretch (including mine.) This kid has a bright future.

Prediction: A lot of people are predicting a big regression from Michael Morse. I disagree. His final line will be .295-30-85. Right on par with what he’s doing now.

Result: Result? .305-31-95. I am a Mike Morse believer! In fact, I was in the minority last year, but I’ve been a Morse believer since May of 2011 and will continue to be so. He is the real deal.

Prediction: Danny Espinosa statistics will stay right in line with what they are now. A low average with 25 homers and 22 steals by season’s end.

Result: Espinosa trailed off after the All-Star break hitting just .225 with 5 homers and 5 steals. I’d be confident in 2012 though, he’s going to help the counting stats, but don’t count on him helping in average.

Prediction: The American League Cy Young award winner will be Justin Verlander.

Result: DEAD ON!

Prediction: The American League MVP will be Adrian Gonzalez.

Result: What happened to the Red Sox? Whew! Just for the record, I agreed with Verlander grabbing the MVP award.

Prediction: Hanley Ramirez will have a very strong second half and play like he’s actually Hanley Ramirez circa 2009.

Result: I hate being THIS wrong! Hanley’s season was over on August 2nd. Look for a big bounce back in 2012 with SS/3B eligibility. Do NOT let him slip past the 15th overall pick in your draft!

Prediction: Phil Hughes will actually help fantasy teams down the stretch.

Result: If you want my real opinion on Phil Hughes, e-mail me at askrotobaseball@yahoo.com…

Prediction: Ryan Howard will lead the NL in second half homers with 21.

Result: This prize went to Dan Uggla and… Jacoby Ellsbury!? Yes, you read that right. Both players finished with 21 homers in the second half and I would recommend both in 2012!

Prediction: Jimmy Rollins will land on the disabled list at some point in the second half.

Result: August 22, 2011, Jimmy Rollins was placed on the DL. Still had a good season though… 16 HR/30 SB.

Prediction: Jay Bruce will be a top five fantasy outfielder the rest of the way.

Result: I’m a Bruce believer, but he really had a bad 2nd half in 2011, which went against his usual grain. He hit .241 in the 2nd half, BUT…have no fear, he’s going to break out FOR REAL in 2012. Keep in mind, he did club 32 dingers in 2011.

Prediction: Brennan Boesch will bat .240 the rest of the season, bringing his numbers down. Just like last year.

Result: I gave Boesch too much credit. His season ended on August 31 and from July 15 until that point he hit .219 with 4 homers. My advice? Draft him late next year, enjoy his production up to the All-Star break and trade him!! Mark my words…

Prediction: And finally…your 2011 Fantasy Baseball MVP will be Jose Bautista!

Result: I’d probably give this award to Matt Kemp, but if you’re in an OBP league, Jose Bautista can make a strong case. In “standard” fantasy leagues, Matt Kemp would get my vote, but Bautista did have another great, spectacular season and he should be a top 5 pick in EVERY fantasy draft in 2012. (Kemp a top 2 pick.)

Well, that’s a wrap on 2011. 2012, HERE. WE. COME!

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball@yahoo.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use twitter!

  1. I like this. Overall, not bad not bad at all.

  2. […] Ask Roto Baseball had a nice review of his 2011 predictions.  Read through and start jotting down your 2012 predictions. Try it, it’s […]

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