Breaking Down A Few Trades…

Posted: August 9, 2011 in Uncategorized

By David Kerr

Breaking Down A Few Trades…

I’m back with another installment of “Breaking Down A Few Trades…”. A lot of league’s trade deadlines have passed, but if you want a trade question broken down, send it to me and I’ll do my best.

Today’s question comes from @mysports1. He was offered Jonathan Papelbon, Ichiro Suzuki, and Gordan Beckham for Mariano Rivera, Ian Kinsler, and Jeff Francoeur. This is what I would call a “needs” trade. There is no studs involved, but it’s the kind of deal that fills in pieces for the stretch run. If I were to compare each player, I would say that Rivera is more valuable than Papelbon, Kinsler more valuable than Beckham, and surprisingly Francoeur more valuable than Ichiro.

Mariano Rivera not only saves a lot of games, but he is so steady with ERA and WHIP. Some people may not agree, but I most certainly think a closer’s ERA and WHIP are very important, especially in Roto leagues. Rivera is sitting on an ERA of 1.87 and a WHIP of 0.97. It doesn’t get better than that for a ninth inning man. Papelbon is having a very good year as well, especially as of late. Since the All-Star break he has an ERA of 0.82. The one glaring statistic which Papelbon produces higher than Rivera is strikeouts. Papelbon has 64 K’s compared to Rivera’s 39. Overall though, I’d rather have Rivera. Papelbon is prone to a few blowups every once in a while, whereas Rivera may blow a save, but won’t totally implode.

If you’ve read my blog or asked me questions on twitter (askROTObaseball) you know that I’m not very high on Gordan Beckham. The guy just doesn’t do anything for me. I guess one could argue that he’s been better as of late, but a line of .245-9 HRs-33 RBIs-4 SB doesn’t exactly scream “must own”. I can’t see him with much value in a 12 team mixed league unless he’s an injury replacement. Ian Kinsler isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire this year either, but he has clubbed 16 homers and stolen 21 bags. I’ll take that over Beckham every day, even if it does come with a .237 average!

The surprising part of this trade is Jeff Francoeur having more value the rest of the season than Ichiro Suzuki. I don’t know if it’s an off-year, age, or something else, but Ichiro is almost terrible from a fantasy perspective. Thank goodness he has stolen 29 bases or he’d basically be worthless. I’ve never been a huge fan of Francoeur, especially since he rarely walks, but you can’t deny the overall results this year. He’s hitting .273 with 15 homers, 18 steals, and 64 runs batted in. Those are very respectable numbers that I think he can maintain for the rest of the season. Ichiro has no power, but more importantly his average is gone. A guy you counted on to hit .320 with a ton of runs scored hasn’t even cracked .280 since the end of May. Maybe he will bounce back next year, but for now, I’d stay away.

In each case I like the player @mysports1 would be receiving. Those are all good upgrades and should be valuable pieces to have down the stretch. In the cases of Kinsler and Francoeur, he is really making out well. The results should be good for all three players he’d be receiving and should definitely help him shore up his team for the stretch run.

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