Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis

Posted: July 31, 2011 in Articles

By David Kerr

Trade Deadline Fantasy Analysis

This is an analysis of every trade made over the past month. As you know, fantasy baseball can be about minor pieces, so I included the minor trades. Here we go, starting with a trade made on July 12.

Francisco Rodriguez (Mets) traded to the Brewers for two PTBNL.

Even though this was a few weeks back, it is still significant for those you in Holds leagues. K-Rod lost his closer’s job and is now setting up John Axford in Milwaukee. He does hold a little value at the current time, but should only be on roster’s in NL-only leagues and DEEP (15 team or deeper) mixed leagues. If your league counts holds, roster him. Obviously if Axford gets hurt, add him immediately. Otherwise, wait until next year when he will probably land a closer’s job.

Jeff Keppinger (Astros) traded to the Giants for pitchers Henry Sosa and Jason Stoffel.

Jeff Keppinger is a decent stop-gap utility guy with good average and that’s about it. His role in San Francisco will be the same as it was in Houston and his production won’t change much. He should only on your roster if you lose a starter to injury and you really need average help. He has no pop and doesn’t steal any base’s which means he pretty worthless from a fantasy standpoint.

Wilson Betemit (Royals) traded to the Tigers for pitcher Antonio Cruz and catch Julio Rodriguez.

Much like Jeff Keppinger, Wilson Betemit offers little from a fantasy standpoint. He should be owned in deep mixed leagues and AL-only leagues. He may hit a few more home runs the rest of the season, but even at a weak third base there are a lot better options. Stay away unless you have no other choice.

Jonny Gomes (Reds) traded to the Nationals for pitcher Chris Manno and outfielder Bill Rhinehart.

Jonny Gomes is hitting a very weak .212 on the season, but who knows, maybe a change of scenery will change that. He does have 11 homers to go along with that paltry average, but still I think he is only worth being on your roster in 15 team mixed league or deeper. Naturally, he should be owned in an NL only league. If he gets hot, he is definitely worth picking up. His home runs usually come in bunches. He isn’t someone you can plan on help your team though. He’s an injury replacement only.

Edwin Jackson (White Sox) and Mark Teahan traded to the Blue Jays for Jason Frasor and Zack Stewart.

This was the first part of the three team blockbuster between the White Sox, Blue Jays, and Cardinals. I’ll touch on Jackson in the next trade breakdown. As for Teahan, he will be a part-time player. He is only hitting .202 as it is. He really shouldn’t be on any roster right now. Jason Frasor is worth owning in Holds leagues, but really has no chance of closing.

Edwin Jackson (Blue Jays), Octavio Dotel, Mark Rzepczynski, and Corey Patterson traded to the Cardinals for Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet, Trevor Miller, and P.J. Walters.

I think Edwin Jackson moving from the AL to the NL can only help. Along with a league switch, he will now be guided by pitching coach Dave Duncan. I think he needs to be owned in 12 team mixed leagues and deeper. He has always had good strikeout numbers and his ERA should lower with the move to St. Louis. Dotel and Rzepczynski will continue to be setup men and Corey Patterson will probably be a fourth outfielder. I wouldn’t roster Patterson unless you’re in an NL-only or 15 team mixed league. He does have stolen base potential, so he does have some value.

Colby Rasmus to the Blue Jays was much-needed for everyone involved. Always projected to be a superstar, there was too much drama in St. Louis for him to ever succeed. I would say Rasmus should be owned in 12 team mixed leagues and he’s borderline for a 10 team mixed league. He certainly has the potential to be very good, but his .241 average to go along with 10 homers and 5 steals isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. Keep a close watch. He could break out in the final two months.

Carlos Beltran (Mets) traded to the Giants for pitcher Zach Wheeler.

As long as he stays healthy, I think Carlos Beltran will provide a much-needed jolt to the Giants stagnant offense. He should have numbers similar to what he had with the Mets before the trade. It’s worth noting that he’s never hit a home run at AT&T Park, but he does possess a career lifetime average of .310 at the Giants home park. He will be fine and you should be confident he will continue to produce at a high level the rest of the season.

Kosuke Fukodome (Cubs) traded to the Indians for pitcher Carlton Smith and outfielder Abner Abreu.

I was expect Fukodome to play roughly four to five days a week, but he shouldn’t be owned on your fantasy team unless you’re in a deep mixed league or AL-only league. I suppose a case could be made for an OBP league, but even then, he really doesn’t produce much else. Stay away.

Hunter Pence (Astros) traded to the Phillies for pitcher Jarred Cosart, pitcher Josh Zied, first baseman Johnathan Singleton, and a PTBNL.

I really like this deal from a fantasy standpoint. Hunter Pence’s stock should rise moving from a terrible Houston lineup to a powerhouse like Philadelphia. He will be hitting behind Ryan Howard, but should still provide good RBI totals since Howard is a low average player. I think he will hit another 8-10 homers the rest of the way as well. He’s in a good situation and has a good head on his shoulders. He should really shine and should definitely help your team down the stretch. He is a guy I would try to trade for. Obviously, he needs to be owned in every fantasy league in the world.

Jerry Hairston Jr. (Nationals) traded to the Brewers for outfielder Erik Komatsu.

Hairston Jr. is a utility player and nothing more. He should be owned in deep NL only leagues only.

Jason Marquis (Nationals) traded to the Diamondbacks for infielder Zach Walters.

Jason Marquis isn’t as good as his current ERA of 3.95. That being said, he could be a spot starter in the right situation. He should be owned in NL-only league or deep mixed leagues. He’s really more of injury replacement if you get into a bind, but could help you out if the stars aligned correctly. Overall though, I’d stay away.

Doug Fister (Mariners) and David Pauley traded to the Tigers for outfielder Casper Wells, infielder Fernando Martinez, and pitcher Charlie Furbush.

Doug Fister isn’t a big strikeout guy (though it has improved a lot from last season), but he gets the job done in the ERA and WHIP departments. For that, he should be owned in 12 team mixed league and deeper. I think he has a chance to win 4-5 more games the rest of the way while maintaining a similar ERA and WHIP. Pauley is a bullpen guy with good numbers that is useful in Holds leagues. Wells isn’t really worth much fantasy wise unless you’re in a deep AL-only league. Furbush really has no reason to be on many fantasy teams. The only real winner from a fantasy standpoint is Fister.

Mike Aviles (Royals) traded to the Red Sox for infielder Yamaico Navarro and pitcher Kendal Volz.

Aviles will be a utility bench player for the Red Sox, but he does actually have a little bit of value because of his speed. He won’t play much, so unless there is an injury he only needs to be rostered in the deepest of leagues. Keep him in the back of your mind if you’re in a pinch and need steals. He could help out there.

Koji Uehara (Orioles) traded to the Rangers for pitcher Tommy Hunter and infielder Chris Davis.

Koji Uehara could probably close on a fair amount of major league teams. His numbers are excellent. He’ll continue as a setup man, but who knows, if Feliz starts to stink up the joint, the Rangers could turn to Uehara for the ninth inning. He should be owned in all Holds leagues. Keep an eye on Tommy Hunter, he has been pitching in relief for the Rangers, but ultimately should be a starter. Chris Davis has real power, but has been viewed as a AAAA player. Let’s see if a change of scenery can make his bat come alive.

Ubaldo Jimenez (Rockies) traded to the Indians for pitcher Alex White, pitcher Joseph Gardner, pitcher Drew Pomeranz, and first baseman Matt McBride.

Ubaldo Jimenez had a horrid April and May, but since the beginning of June has actually done pretty well. His ERA has lowered and his strikeout rate is up. I think the move to Cleveland will be a good thing for him and the Indians also. I’m not sure that he will return to his first-half form of last year, but he should definitely do well. He’s a must own in 12 team mixed leagues and probably even shallower leagues. He’s someone I would try to acquire via trade, if I could get him cheap.

Orlando Cabrera (Indians) traded to the Giants for outfielder Thomas Neal.

Cabrera is way past his prime and his bat shows it. He shouldn’t be owned in anything but deep NL-only leagues and very deep mixed leagues and even then, he probably shouldn’t be owned. He just isn’t very good anymore.

Derrek Lee (Orioles) traded to the Pirates for first baseman Aaron Baker.

Derrek Lee should be an upgrade for the Pirates and his track record for second halves says he could be an asset for your fantasy team. I think he’s a fringe player in a 12 team mixed league. He’s probably more suited for a 15 team mixed league, but does still have some pop left in his bat. He’s hit 6 homers since July 1. Keep an eye on Lee, you may need him as an injury replacement over the next two months.

Rafael Furcal (Dodgers) traded to the Cardinals for outfielder Alex Castellanos.

Oh, if only he could stay healthy…

Rafael Furcal could be a big asset with the bat, but he can’t stay off the disabled list. It’s actually quite frustrating, but such is life owning Raffy. If he’s healthy, he should be in your lineup, but always make sure you have a backup plan! My advice is to see if someone who is weak at shortstop would have an interest. It is a weak position, you know. If you’re not able to move him, enjoy his production… until he gets hurt again.

Michael Bourn (Astros) traded to the Braves for outfielder Jordan Schafer, pitcher Juan Abreu, pitcher Paul Clemens, and pitcher Brett Oberholtzer.

This is a great trade for the Braves and should be for your fantasy team as well. Bourn is a premier stolen base threat and should swipe a lot of bags and score a lot of runs atop the Atlanta lineup. The only thing that is a bit disheartening is that Atlanta as a team is terrible when it comes to stealing bases. That will change soon. He’s in a great situation and will continue his great production from here on out. If someone is selling, I’m buying.

Mike Adams (Padres) traded to the Rangers for pitchers Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland.

Everyone thought Heath Bell would be the Padre to move and that never happened. Adams will move to Texas and fill the role he had with San Diego, a setup man. He’s a must own in Holds leagues.

Brad Ziegler (A’s) traded to the Diamondbacks for infielder Brandon Allen and pitcher Jordan Norberto.

Brad Ziegler is a situational lefty and that’s basically it. He should only be used in deeper Holds leagues. Brandon Allen may get a chance to play first base for the A’s, but as of now he shouldn’t really be owned in too many leagues. He’s very deep mixed league or AL-only at this point.

Ryan Ludwick (Padres) traded to the Pirates for a PTBNL.

If anything, at least Ludwick is out of Petco Park. Sadly though, I don’t think he has a ton of power. I think his 38 home run effort in 2008 was a blip on the radar. That being said, he should definitely be owned in NL-only leagues and in 15 team mixed leagues. He’s borderline for a 12 team mixed league. If he starts hitting better, he could be a definite add. Watch his production and pounce if he gets hot.

Erik Bedard (Mariners) and pitcher Josh Fields traded to Boston for outfielder Trayvon Robinson (from Dodgers) and Chih-Hsien Chiang. Also, the Dodgers received catcher Tim Federowicz and pitchers Juan Rodriguez and Stephen Fife.

See Furcal, Rafael.

Look, If Bedard can stay healthy, he will be VERY good. Of course, we all know that isn’t a guarantee. Hypothetically if he stays healthy, he could win 6-8 games the rest of the way. Will he avoid the disabled list? I wouldn’t put money on it. Overall though, he’s a must own, but be cautious.

Well, that’s it for this year’s deadline. Thanks for reading, I hope you enjoyed it!

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use Twitter!

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