Michael Morse or Less?

Posted: July 29, 2011 in Player Profile

By David Kerr

Michael Morse or Less?

I don’t hear many people with very positive things to say regarding Michael Morse and his chances to finish the season strong. I know he strikes out a lot. I know he doesn’t walk much. Maybe he’s lucky. Who knows?

His luck I may not know, but what I do know are what the statistics show me. Since May 23, he is batting .330 with a .390 on base percentage. He’s swatted 15 homers and driven in 47 runs. Prior to that (March 31 – May 22) he hit a respectable .267. He only hit two homers and only drove in 11 runs, but he wasn’t THAT bad. His only problem this season was March – April. He hit a paltry .224 and didn’t produce much of anything. Everyone knows he has 30 plus homer potential and I think he’s going to reach that.

If you look deeper into Michael Morse’s statistics you’ll see he has an inflated BABip of .360. That’s more than likely unsustainable for the rest of the season, but there is no reason to think it can’t be .330 from here on out. Sometimes, players just have really good seasons and play over their head. There are other times though that some players just figure things out. Look at Jose Bautista. Now, don’t get me wrong, Michael Morse is no Joey Bats, but I do think he is for real. At age 29, he could very well be a late bloomer.

Though I have some steady statistics to back me up, a lot of my opinion about Michael Morse comes from a personal belief that he will finish strong. I am high on Morse, period. He hits in a pretty decent lineup and should have a good amount of RBI chances. Plus his power is FOR REAL (as you already know). Another thing about Morse that goes overlooked is his position flexibility. He can play 1B or OF in most any fantasy lineup. Those type of things matter.

While most are saying SELL, I say BUY. Chances are most people are reading other people’s opinions to sell Morse and maybe you can get him for cheaper than he is actually worth. With that being said, don’t overpay. Be realistic. I think he will provide good value down the stretch. Could he tail off? Sure, be he definitely will not finish the season like he started. Fantasy trade deadlines are approaching quickly. Most are between now and the middle of August. I would be confident going after Morse. He will help you. And finally…

My final line prediction for Michael Morse is…

.288/.352/.535/31 HR/88 RBIs

I would like to hear your comments on this article. I hear a lot of things about Michael Morse, both positive and negative. Mostly negative, though. What are your predictions? Leave a comment and let me know.

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use Twitter!

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Comments
  1. Swapnil says:

    Hey David,
    I need your thoughts on this trade offer I received. Its a 10 team H2H first year keeper league. Extra Cats for hitters are OPS , TB. Extra cats for pitchers are CG K/9 QS.

    I get Joey Votto ($49)and Roy Halladay($31) and I give up Eric Hosmer ($3) , Bumgarner
    ($2) , Ackley ($3) and Mat Latos ($3). We can keep as many players as we want for
    next year but it should be below $100. I think I am giving up a lot for having the best shot to win
    this year. After this my only cheap player will be trout for $3.What would you advise?
    Thank You!

  2. Josh says:

    I have Morse on a bunch of my teams. If you look at the numbers he put up in about half a season last year, they correspond to what your predictions for this season is. He has given me a chance to have a good 1B so I could ship out my elite 1B for more important cogs for my teams.

  3. Swapnil says:

    Thanks David. I guess I have to put myself in the best possible position to win.Even though in H2H leagues I could lose no matter what right?

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