Will Evan Longoria Rebound?

Posted: July 19, 2011 in Player Profile

By David Kerr

Will Evan Longoria Rebound?

At this point in the season you were expecting Evan Longoria’s line to look something like a .280-.285 batting average, 18 homers, and roughly 60 RBI’s. After an oblique injury caused him to miss an entire month (April 3 – May 2), he has yet to get in a groove and sports a batting line of .234, with 11 homers and 45 RBI’s. It has been reported he is also dealing with a nerve issue in his foot. So, the question now is can Longoria bounce back to his normal numbers or is this what we can expect the rest of the season?

If you look deeper than the usual box score statistics, you will see Longoria has a BAbip (Batting Average on balls in play) of .237. Last year his BAbip was .336. That is .99 points lower and it is also going to improve. His career average at Tropicana Field is .274, this season he’s hitting .175 in his home park. That will also improve. He’s still walking as much as usual and his strikeouts are actually down from his career normal numbers.

On top of his own personal statistics, the Rays are very much in the playoff hunt. They have 22 games left between the Yankees and Red Sox, combined. That being said, I think we are going to see big things from Evan Longoria in the second half. Tampa Bay needs him to produce at the level he is capable of and I think he will do just that. The important thing for Longoria owners though, is that Tampa Bay wins games. If they fall out of the playoff hunt quickly, Longoria may get more days off than usual.

Looking further down the line, Longoria is a top 10 keeper in any fantasy league. He is only 25 and won’t really hit his prime for another two to three years. If you’re out of it this season and are aware of an owner that is looking to move him because of his down year (so far), work out a trade and grab him. Teams in first through fifth place are looking for “pieces” for the stretch run. If that means you have to trade three pretty good players or even sacrifice a category win that you’re gunning for, do it. He will pay dividends in the very near future.

If you are an owner that is close to the top and you’re thinking about trading him, DO NOT under sell him. He is going to have a great August and September. Mark my words.

Oh, and by the way, if I am wrong, please call me out on it! It will make for some great off-season discussion!

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball@yahoo.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use twitter!

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Comments
  1. Josh says:

    Do you really think he’s a top 10 keeper? Who would you keep in front of him?

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