Breaking down a few trades…

Posted: July 9, 2011 in Trades

By David Kerr

Breaking down a few trades…

In a previous blog post I broke down a few trades I received via Twitter @askROTObaseball. I had some positive feedback so I figured I’d do it again and break down a few trades in more detail.

The first comes from @cooperkyle22. He was offered Robinson Cano, Shane Victorino, and Jair Jurrjens for Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday. This is certainly a fair offer, but not a deal I would make. Robinson Cano is the best fantasy second baseman in the league, no doubt about it. Position scarcity alone makes this deal tempting, but it’s the rest of the deal that makes me skeptical. Shane Victorino was placed on the DL for the second time this season with a thumb injury. He missed time in May with a hamstring injury. Look, I think Victorino is a great fantasy player, but I don’t trust his health. I also don’t think he’ll hit .300 the rest of the season. From here on out I say Victorino bats .275 with 6 homers and 12 steals. Jair Jurrjens is going to regress. I don’t think Jurrjens is a bad pitcher, but he’s not this good. He is 12-3 with a 1.87 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP. His K/9 rate is 5.81. He is definitely due to regress. The other side of this deal is quite studly. Ryan Braun, though injured as of late should be just fine at the start of the second half. He’s a top 3 player overall and brings everything to the table. Matt Holliday is about as sure as it gets for production. He is so consistent it’s unreal. As long as he’s healthy, which I’m confident he will be, he’ll hit .320 with 15 homers the rest of the way. It’s tough to trade that away.

Final Verdict: Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday. Cano is so tempting, especially playing 2B, but you have to stick with two studs instead of one. (Even if they are or have been banged up recently.)

The second trade breakdown comes from @tomharris89. I chose to break this one down just to reassure anyone who question’s a two for one deal. He had a chance to score Cliff Lee for Carlos Beltran and Alexi Ogando. Carlos Beltran has had a great first half. As long as he stays healthy, I can see a .275 average with a lot of walks and 12 more homers to finish out the year. That’s pretty steady production. The second piece to that side of the deal, Alexi Ogando, has been pretty darn good as well. He holds a very good 2.92 ERA with a fantastic 1.01 WHIP. He has decent strikeout numbers with a K/9 of 6.71. That being said, I’m really not confident he can keep this up. There has to be regression. My guess is Ogando’s numbers look something like this in the second half: 6 wins, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts. That’s not too bad, but when you can get Cliff Lee… you have to do it! Cliff Lee is a stud, everyone knows that. Playing for Philadelphia, he will win A LOT of games. He’s headed into the All-Star break with 137 strikeouts. That’s 31 more strikeouts than his current career best of 106 first half strikeouts in 2008. Aside from teammate Roy Halladay and Felix Hernandez, he’s the best fantasy pitcher out there. If you have a chance to get Cliff Lee for only an aging (though productive) veteran hitter and a pretty good young pitcher, you have to do it.

Final Verdict: Cliff Lee. He’s a total stud and if you can get him for this price you MUST jump all over it.

Be sure to follow me on twitter by hitting the follow button below. I will answer any and all fantasy baseball questions you have. Also, you can e-mail me at askROTObaseball.com for any long form question’s. If you need an answer quick though, definitely use twitter!

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