Breaking down a few trades…

Posted: June 30, 2011 in Trades

By David Kerr

For today’s blog post, I wanted to break down a few trade question’s I received via Twitter. You can follow me on Twitter @askROTObaseball…cheap plug.

The first trade I wanted to dissect came from @dagaustin2000. He was offered Josh Hamilton and Ubaldo Jimenez for Jair Jurrjens and Brian McCann.

Josh Hamilton has put up pretty good numbers so far this season considering he missed 6 weeks in April and May. If Hamilton stays healthy, and that’s a HUGE if, he will produce monster numbers in the Texas heat. That is, as long as he isn’t playing any day games!

If you read my blog from Tuesday June 28th, you know I am high on Ubaldo Jimenez for the second half. Even if he doesn’t post an ERA under 3.00 or a WHIP of 1.20, he’s still going to be striking guys out at a much better pace than Jair Jurrjens.

When it comes to Jurrjens, sure, he’s a solid pitcher. That being said, he doesn’t really strike many guys out. In 2009, he struck out 152 in 215 innings. That’s a K/9 rate of 6.36. This season his K/9 rate is 5.17. He is due to regress. He has already won 10 games and I think he’ll finish the year with 16 wins. That means between now and September he’ll add 6 wins. I think Ubaldo will win more and post better strikeout numbers.

Brian McCann is a stud catcher. In fact, he’s probably my personal favorite as far as catchers go. He’s also having a very good season that I think will continue. With a .314 AVG., 14 HRs, and 47 RBIs, it would be quite hard to trade that away. Most catchers aren’t giving you that kind of production in fantasy baseball. When it’s all said and done, I see McCann with a final line of .285 AVG., 26 HRs, and 88 RBIs. It doesn’t get much better than that from your catcher.

So, what side do I like? Josh Hamilton and Ubaldo Jimenez by a slight margin. I really think the difference maker is Jimenez. He is definitely an upgrade over Jurrjens even if the ERA and WHIP are a bit higher. I think Ubaldo will have between 90-100 strikeouts between now and the end of the season. Jurrjens MAY get 60, and that’s pushing it. As far as Hamilton and McCann go, I’d give the slightest nod to Hamilton. If he’s healthy, it’s hard to find a better all around hitter in baseball. I’d put my chips in on Hamilton and keep my fingers crossed.

Final Verdict: Josh Hamilton and Ubaldo Jimenez by a hair

The second trade I wanted to look at came from @Duhh__Winning. He asked if Andrew McCutchen and Michael Morse for Mark Teixeira and Jacoby Ellsbury was a fair trade.

I’m a huge McCutchen and Morse fan. Andrew McCutchen is a great all-around fantasy player. He’s on pace for 22 HR’s and 30 steals. Michael Morse is practically a lock to hit 30 home runs. Since May 23, he’s clubbed 13 long balls. Who’s to say he can’t hit 35? He hasn’t slowed down yet.

There has only been one season in which Mark Teixeira had hit more than 25 HRs before the All-Star break. That was in 2005. That changed today when he clubbed his 25th of the year off of Randy Wolf. He is on pace to hit roughly 50 home runs! Jacoby Ellsbury is back to being healthy this year and that means he’s back to stealing bases. He’s on pace to steal 50 bases and should do it with ease. Not only that, but leading off for the Red Sox means A LOT of runs scored.

Final Verdict: Mark Teixeira and Jacoby Ellsbury by quite a large margin. If someone made you this offer in your league, POUNCE…Fast!

Thanks for reading! Tomorrow I will start my July rankings with Catcher and First Base. As always, click the icon below to follow me on twitter!

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